Pay attention to TD 12 Tampa Bay Examiner.com
Tropical Depression 12 is making it's way west across the Atlantic from the coast of Africa. This is a system that Tampa Bay residents should be watching carefully, even though it is a very long way from us even though it is moving fairly quickly to the west at 15 knots. The official five day forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows it growing into Tropical Storm Katia by this (Monday) afternoon and a category 2 storm by the end of the week and staying on a westerly course that would eventually take it toward Florida's east coast. Interestingly, the spaghetti chart forecasts produced by the NHC's computer models which often produce very different results at this stage of development are basically in agreement adding some extra confidence to the NHC predictions.
As usual things get more uncertain toward the end of the 5 day forecast and beyond. NHC forecaster Michael Brennan explains one of the major factors that will influcene Tropical Depression 12's course. "the depression is currently situated to the south of the south of the subtropical [high pressure] ridge, but the western edge of the ridge will weaken over the next day or two as a mid/upper-level low cuts off and retrogrades across the central Atlantic. This will allow the depression to to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so." Further down the track Brennan says the course will probably stay west-northwesterly. When and where it starts to turn will determine if it eventually threatens Florida in general or Tampa Bay in particular.
Many neighbours were in the same boat, with water-stained bundles of carpeting placed curbside on every street. All told, the Insurance Bureau of Canada estimated more than $400-million was paid out to property owners to cover flood-damaged basements from that particular storm.